Excellence in
Transport Forecasting

An Auckland Council, NZ Transport Agency and Auckland Transport Partnership

Welcome

Hi, welcome to the AFC website. This is the first stage of the website development but we plan to extend the content to include more data and perhaps some interactive mapping of transport modelling results and forecasts. Please feel free to contact us and let us know what you would like to see on the website.

Latest

Communications Briefing

Communications Briefing Image

The purpose of this document is to provide a clear strategic view of the goals and intent of the AFC for 2018/19 – please go to our Publications page.

Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model (May 2018)

Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model Image

We have completed building this regional scale model, with a base year of 2016, at a mesoscopic level. Due to requests from other organisations we have set up a link for others to view our technical notes – please go to our Publications page.

Auckland Population Projection

Auckland Population Projection Image

The Auckland region’s latest population growth projections were released by Statistics NZ in February 2017. AFC uses one of the estimates for its base projections, the Medium growth scenario. This estimate is slightly higher than the previous release – there are about 100,000 more people expected in the next five years, mainly due to higher levels of migration continuing for a longer time before reducing to lower historic levels. The resident population is estimated to reach 2 million by 2037. The next estimate will be released in 2019, after the 2018 Census data has been analysed.

Travel Demand Forecasting

Travel Demand Forecasting Image

Forecasts of travel demands across a typical March weekday are developed for a number of future years for the morning, midday and afternoon time periods. Modelling is based on data collected in 2016 and population and employment projections for the next 30 years. This information is not publically available because it changes as developments and projections change over time. Regional planning and large scale projects can request data via the contact us page.

Traffic Modelling

Traffic Modelling Image

Detailed traffic flow modelling and microsimulation of vehicles is undertaken for analysis of traffic network performance. This is typically related to project level analysis and testing of alternative solutions to problems. This can also include non-vehicle modes of transport. Projects can request modelling data and outputs via the contact us page.

Current Land Use Forecast Maps

urrent Land Image

Land use forecasts released by Council give a general idea of where growth is expected to locate over the period 2016-46. Note these are revised periodically as more information becomes available.

Publications

Communications Briefing

Communications Briefing Image

The purpose of this document is to provide a clear strategic view of the goals and intent of the AFC for 2018/19.

Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model (May 2018)

Dynamic Traffic Image

We have completed building a regional scale traffic model covering the entire Auckland region. The model base year is 2016 and three assignment period models have been built. The models are all coded at the microscopic level but will only be run and maintained as a core decision support tool for Auckland at the mesoscopic level.

Part One: Emerging Technologies for Rapid Transit

Emerging Technologies Image

As new technologies emerge, it is crucial to future-proof investment decisions for urban transit. There is a risk that current investment decisions ‘lock in’ technologies that may be superseded in coming decades. This report evaluates bus rapid transit (BRT) and light rail transit (LRT) systems, to inform investment decisions.

Part Two: Future-proofing Investment Decisions

Future-proofing Image

To inform current investment decisions for mass transit, this paper, Part Two of a series on Emerging Technologies for Rapid Transit, evaluates several emerging technologies in depth to understand their likely future trajectory, and impacts on the forecast costs and benefits of different investment options.

A thought piece: Transport demand implications of changing population age and ethnic diversity in Auckland

Transport demand Image

This report offers a thought piece that highlights aspects of the extent and scale of changes in population ageing and ethnicity patterns that may have an impact on travel and transport infrastructure requirements in a future Auckland.